Oil Prices Rise Amid Iran Talks Uncertainty, but Weekly Losses Persist

Global oil prices climbed on Friday as investors monitored developments in US-Iran peace talks. However, markets remained cautious because traders still doubted the chances of a major breakthrough.

Brent crude futures increased by $1.66, or 1.6 per cent, to $104.24 a barrel by 0405 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.11, or 1.2pc, to reach $97.46 per barrel.

Despite Friday’s gains, both benchmarks stayed on track for weekly losses. Brent crude slipped 4.6pc this week, while WTI dropped 7.6pc as market sentiment shifted repeatedly over possible diplomatic progress.

US-Iran Talks Continue Without Major Breakthrough

A senior Iranian source told Reuters that gaps between Tehran and Washington had narrowed during recent negotiations. In addition, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned “some good signs” in the discussions.

However, key disagreements remain unresolved. The two sides still differ over Iran’s uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices would likely remain elevated until market fundamentals improve significantly.

Supply Risks Keep Oil Market Volatile

Analysts believe ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support higher oil prices. At the same time, weak progress toward a permanent ceasefire has added uncertainty to global energy markets.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, predicted that WTI crude could remain between $90 and $110 next week, similar to recent trading patterns.

Meanwhile, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its average 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 from $81.50. The firm cited supply shortages, damaged Middle East energy infrastructure, and slow post-conflict recovery as key reasons behind the revision.

Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical Concern

Before the conflict, nearly 20pc of global energy supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Current disruptions have removed around 14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.

The head of ADNOC warned that full oil flows through the Strait may not resume before early 2027, even if hostilities end soon.

In addition, four sources said major Opec+ producers are expected to approve a modest increase in July oil output during their June 7 meeting. However, regional supply disruptions continue to affect deliveries.