The United States is preparing for its November 3, 2026, midterm elections, with voters set to elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as governors in states across the country.
Early voting has been underway for weeks, with the outcome expected to shape the balance of power in Congress and influence President Donald Trump’s political agenda during the remainder of his term.
Although midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term, they can have major consequences for the administration in power.
More than 100 million Americans could cast ballots if turnout matches the 2022 midterm elections. Political advertising spending has also reached unprecedented levels, with a record $3.8 billion spent on advertisements aired through October 12, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
The largest spending has been concentrated in competitive Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Campaign finance records cited in the report show that billionaire Elon Musk has spent approximately $366 million supporting Republicans.
Midterm elections typically attract fewer voters than presidential contests. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election.
Control of Congress at Stake
The central battle is over control of Congress, where Democrats are seeking to overturn Republican majorities in both chambers.
Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control.
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The Senate contest is similarly consequential. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need to gain four seats to take control, according to the figures provided.
Competitive races in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia could prove decisive in determining the Senate’s future composition.
A Democratic victory in either chamber would create a significant check on Trump’s legislative agenda, while Republican control would give the president greater scope to advance his priorities.
Can Midterms Affect Trump’s Presidency?
Midterm elections often pose a challenge for the party controlling the White House. For Trump and Republicans, the November vote will serve as a major test of public support for the administration.
Voters frequently use midterms to assess a president’s performance, particularly on economic conditions, public policy and other domestic concerns.
The results could influence the administration’s approach to key issues and shape political strategies ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
They could also provide early indications of the messages and policy positions likely to feature prominently in the next presidential campaign.
What Are Polls Showing?
Trump’s approval rating stood at 32 per cent in a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, according to the figures cited in the report.
Rising consumer prices and other cost-of-living pressures could weigh on Republican candidates, while signs of stronger Democratic enthusiasm for voting may provide an advantage to the opposition.
Some Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 may also be shifting back towards Democrats amid economic concerns and dissatisfaction with aspects of the administration’s immigration enforcement policies.
However, a sweeping Democratic victory is not guaranteed. Republicans could benefit from their campaign spending advantage, continued voter scepticism towards Democrats and concerns among moderate voters about some progressive candidates who have won party primaries.
The final outcome will depend on how these competing factors influence turnout and voting decisions in individual districts and states.
Lessons From Previous Midterm Elections
Recent midterm contests illustrate how dramatically congressional control can change during a president’s term.
In 2010, during Barack Obama’s presidency, Republicans gained 63 House seats amid economic difficulties and opposition to the administration’s healthcare reforms. Democrats lost control of the House but retained their Senate majority despite losing six seats.
Obama later described the Republican victory as a “shellacking”.
In 2018, Democrats gained a net 40 seats in the House during Trump’s first presidency, regaining control of the chamber. Republicans, however, recorded a net gain of two seats in the Senate.
The 2026 elections will also include gubernatorial contests in 36 states and elections for state legislative seats in nearly every state.
According to Ballotpedia figures cited in the report, Republicans currently control approximately 55 per cent of state legislative seats nationwide, compared with 43.8 per cent held by Democrats.
Who Could Become House Speaker?
If Democrats win control of the House, Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York could become the next speaker. He currently leads House Democrats and would make history as the first Black American to hold the office if elected.
As speaker, Jeffries would have significant influence over the House legislative agenda and committee priorities. Democrats have indicated they would investigate activities by Trump and members of his administration, with Jeffries repeatedly alleging what he describes as unprecedented levels of corruption.
Democratic priorities would also include efforts to reduce the cost of healthcare, groceries, housing and energy.
If Republicans retain the House, the speakership would remain with their party. Current Speaker Mike Johnson could continue in the role, although a challenge within the party could produce another candidate.
Republican legislative priorities are likely to include further tax cuts, increased defence spending and reductions to social safety-net programmes, building on Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
Key House Races to Watch
Several competitive House contests could help determine which party controls the chamber.
Among the closely watched races is Republican Representative Mike Lawler’s re-election bid in a New York district won by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
Another contest involves an open seat in a competitive Nebraska district, where higher fuel prices have become a concern for farmers and truckers amid the US war against Iran.
Democrats are also targeting two Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and another in New Jersey as they seek to regain the House majority.
Election Integrity and Potential Legal Challenges
Questions about election administration and possible federal intervention are also expected to remain part of the political debate.
US elections are administered by individual states, which oversee voting procedures and the counting of ballots.
Trump has repeatedly alleged widespread election cheating since 2020, although those claims have not been supported by evidence establishing widespread fraud. State election officials and congressional Democrats have been preparing for potential legal challenges to any efforts by the administration to intervene in election administration.
The November 3 vote will determine more than congressional seats. Its results will shape the political environment for the final two years of Trump’s current term and influence the policy battles leading into the 2028 presidential election.
