ISLAMABAD, October 20, 2026: Pakistan’s power purchase price could reach Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour in 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Ltd. (CPPA-G) projecting total electricity procurement costs of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario.
The projections form part of the rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-WAPDA distribution companies, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. The process will establish revised reference costs for the next tariff period.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for November 3, 2026, at 2pm at NEPRA Tower. Interested parties will also be able to participate online through Zoom and submit comments or objections.
Power Purchase Price Could Vary Across Six Scenarios
CPPA-G has outlined six scenarios to assess how electricity demand, fuel prices, exchange rates and capacity payments could affect procurement costs in 2027.
Under the base case, the agency assumes annual electricity demand growth of 2.60%, an exchange rate of Rs279 per US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
The projected purchase price ranges from Rs25.883 per unit under the ideal scenario to Rs29.255 per unit under the second-worst-case scenario.
The estimates are intended to show how changes in key economic and operational assumptions could affect the cost of supplying electricity.
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Capacity Payments Make Up the Largest Cost Component
Capacity charges account for the largest share of projected electricity procurement costs under the base case.
CPPA-G estimates the following annual costs:
- Capacity charges: Rs1.91 trillion, or Rs14.717 per unit.
- Fuel costs: Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit.
- Variable operations and maintenance: Rs70.58 billion, or Rs0.543 per unit.
- Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges: A combined Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.909 per unit.
The estimates indicate that capacity payments will remain a major component of electricity procurement costs. Fuel expenses and currency movements could also influence the final cost during 2027.
Weaker Rupee Could Push Costs Higher
In the two worst-case scenarios, CPPA-G assumes the rupee will weaken to Rs290 against the US dollar, compared with Rs279 in the other scenarios.
Under these assumptions, the projected purchase price rises to Rs28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
The projections highlight the potential impact of exchange-rate movements on electricity costs, particularly where fuel and other supply-chain expenses are exposed to foreign currency fluctuations.
Lower Electricity Demand Could Affect Per-Unit Costs
A separate demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual demand growth of only 0.70%, reducing projected electricity sales to 127,937 gigawatt-hours.
Under this scenario, the power purchase price is estimated at Rs27.568 per unit. The change reflects lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
Another scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) and gas places the projected price at Rs26.441 per unit.
The ideal scenario estimates the purchase price at Rs25.883 per unit, primarily reflecting lower fuel expenses.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate of 11.70%, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate of 3.98%, US inflation of 2.10%, domestic inflation of 8.20% and National Grid Company losses of 2.50%.
NEPRA Review Will Determine the Next Steps
The projections will undergo regulatory scrutiny as part of the tariff-rebasing process. The November hearing will provide an opportunity for stakeholders to raise concerns and comment on the assumptions used in the calculations.
The projected power purchase price is not the final retail electricity tariff. The amount consumers ultimately pay will depend on NEPRA’s determinations and other applicable components, including taxes, duties, subsidies and distribution-related costs.
The rebasing exercise will establish a new reference framework for electricity pricing from January 2027, with the final outcome dependent on the regulatory process.
