Iran’s surprising r
The battle tactics have shown their worthiness against strategic planning. When US and Israel launched joint attack on Iran on February 28 targeting a regime change operation, it was not even in their hindsight that this would spiral down to a complex stalemate where getting out of the conflict would be more difficult than fighting it.
As soon as the conflict took a military turn, one question that arrived in everyone’s mind was, “how long will this take to achieve desired objectives and finish up the conflict”. Many opined it would be completed in days citing the US military might and Israeli intelligence duo.
However, the conflict initially seemed to be simpler and achievable is turning out to be complex, anarchic and prolong spreading from days to weeks and now months. Still a stalemate situation exist while both belligerents are negotiating as to finish this conflict with a Victory note.
US on one hand in unable to chalk out clear plan as how to finish this conflict, nor able to furnish a timeline for that. Wherein, rhetoric like “US is close to achieving its strategic goals”, “heavy attacks” and “push Iran back to the Stone Age” are anew. Even the US allies are watching matter unfold in an awe and viewing it as ill planned, badly executed with flawed timing. Former US ambassadors and congressmen have spoke against this and how badly the situation was handled by the US.
On other hand Iran struggling to counter the aerial bombardment and likely intelligence loopholes while managing its internal security situation is able to produce counter to these attacks with a retaliatory response on US allies in gulf. This tactics of Iran has sent a shockwave around the globe as global oil markets burst with fear and oil prices rocketed well over 100 USD per barrel. Ripples of the same were visible in stock markets around the world with stocks plummeting and fuel prices and inflation rising.
So, where in all this modalities and ongoing, things went wrong in US/ Israel planning calculus.
The aggressive duo was not expecting a strong retaliation from Iran gauging their initial onslaught will neutralize all the aggressive punch that Iran holds. However, despite initial heavy losses, Iran was able to retain their firepower and responded with a devastating volley of drones and missiles towards economic targets in gulf triggering economic unrest around the globe. Also, US/ Israel duo did not considered their allies during planning phase including NATO for any support. This led to various miscalculations which proved heavy during the 3rd and 4th week of the conflict where severe disagreements appeared in the stance of various allies and NATO over planning and use of force. US criticizing the allies/ NATO also spread more fuel on the already aggravated situation thus loosing the support it could garner.
One major miscalculation was that once the military offensive will be started, people of Iran will take the streets and will throw over the current regime. This however turned out more as a desire than a concrete planned movement. Attacks on Iranian top leadership proved a point of unity for the people of Iran and suppositions of US/ Israel duo were amply negated. The Venezuelan model was also wrongly predicted to occur in Iran giving fabricated hopes to the planners.
Iran’s attack on military bases and economic hubs in gulf have shattered their image of being a safe heaven for business and leisure. This wasn’t anticipated neither by gulf countries nor by US. Gulf countries have already started to reconsider their trust and security guarantees of US and are looking for a new security umbrella outside the current agreement.
Opposition by the European allies was another shock for the US as many of EU countries refused to provide bases and military facilities citing their neutral stance in this conflict. This burdened the military efforts and increased the exchequer of war causing various re-evaluations (e.g. air routes, missile engagements, defense systems employment etc).
Attack on girls’ Primary school in Minab city of Iran was another brick that shattered the US aims in diplomatic and psychological fonts. Even the staunch allies raised strong voice against this act and civil rights movements and activists have garnered amass to subject the responsible to be held accountable. Criticism and demonstration within US are also putting a lot of pressure on planners as the situation is drawing against the war.
Moreover, Strait of Hormuz was master stroke of Iran’s perpetuation of globalizing the conflict, wherein, closure of this passage sent shockwaves across the global economies. Disruption of oil, LNG, petroleum products, containerized and bulk cargo to and from gulf region to around the world was severely hampered thus sending jolts to the businesses down to the retailer level. Stock markets tumbled, fuel prices soared and insurance and premiums hit record high. The battle tactics showed their worthiness against strategic planning.
Above all actions were either not calculated by US or Israel at the start of conflict or were too ambitious and optimistic to commensurate with the ground realities. Despite losing its top leaders and senior military and political figures, Iran is still worthy to put on resilience to the aggression and its strategy has apparently been unexpected and surprising to the world. Therefore, Iran is able to create an environment against the US and Israel pressurizing them through diplomatic means civil rights uproar. The longer this conflict is mongering, the more complex situation is getting for US and Israel and global support is thinning out. Iran also does not want an immediate end to the conflict, but wants to maintain military, political and economic pressure sustained over a longer period of time, so as to make this conflict more expensive for US and bring them to negotiation table with Iran dictating the major chunk of terms.
Dr. Nazia Sher is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Pakistan. The views expressed are her own. She can be reached at: rassosoiate2.nima.k@bahria.edu.pk
