BAGHDAD, September 29, 2026: US forces are set to leave their remaining bases in Iraq by Wednesday, completing a withdrawal agreed with Baghdad in 2024 and ending more than two decades of American military presence in the country.
The departure began under an agreement reached during former US President Joe Biden’s administration and is being completed under President Donald Trump as Washington remains engaged in conflict with Iran. About 4,500 Americans have died during more than two decades of US military involvement in Iraq.
The withdrawal has been welcomed by Iran and its allied armed groups, which have described the end of the US military presence as a victory. Iraqi security analysts, however, have raised concerns that the move could increase Tehran’s influence while reducing a military counterweight to Iran-backed factions.
“Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition’s departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq,” Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli told Reuters.
He said Iran-aligned militia groups could use the withdrawal to strengthen their position in Iraq’s security and political institutions.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the US departure as a “historic victory” for groups opposed to the American military presence.
The withdrawal comes as Iraq attempts to balance its relations with both Washington and Tehran. The two countries have maintained close political and military ties with Baghdad, while their rivalry has at times turned Iraqi territory into a battleground.
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Security concerns
Some Iraqi officials and community leaders have questioned whether the country is ready to assume full responsibility for security following the coalition’s departure.
“We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,” Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zobaie of Fallujah told Reuters.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and withdrew its combat forces in 2011. American troops returned less than three years later as part of an international campaign supporting Iraqi forces against Islamic State.
Islamic State seized large areas of Iraq and Syria in 2014 before Iraqi forces, supported by the US-led coalition, recaptured the territory in a campaign that largely ended the group’s territorial control by 2017.
Some Iraqi security officials now fear that the loss of US intelligence, logistical assistance and surveillance capabilities could give Islamic State sleeper cells an opportunity to regroup.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that security forces had observed what he described as increased movement by Islamic State sleeper cells after the withdrawal plans became public.
Iraqi security officials also said they had uncovered a suspected Islamic State plot to carry out attacks around the time of the US departure, highlighting concerns that the militant group retains the ability to exploit security gaps.
Iran welcomes withdrawal
Iran has presented the US departure as part of a broader effort to remove American military forces from the Middle East.
Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s Parliament’s National Security Commission, said lasting security would prevail in Iraq once American forces leave the country and the region.
Iran has also welcomed the withdrawal as a success for its network of allied armed groups, often described by Tehran as its “axis of resistance.”
The United States has accused Iran-backed Iraqi militias of participating in the wider regional conflict, including attacks on neighboring countries. Baghdad has said it is working to limit the influence of armed groups and strengthen state authority.
The withdrawal marks the end of a major phase of US military involvement in Iraq, but its impact on the balance between Baghdad, Washington, Tehran and armed groups inside Iraq remains uncertain.
