North Korea’s Waste Balloons: A Strategic Provocation Ahead of U.S. Elections

North Korea’s recent launches of waste

balloons into South Korea represent

more than mere provocations

By: Jeong Eui-sun (North Korean defector)

North Korea‘s recent launch of waste balloons toward South Korea is more than just provocation. It reflects a multipurpose strategy with political and psychological aims. This tactic is designed to incite unrest within South Korea and stir internal conflicts, especially regarding North Korea policy. It also sends a political message to the international community, particularly the United States.

Retaliation and Propaganda

In May, North Korea began launching large numbers of waste-filled balloons as retaliation. They claimed South Korean NGOs were sending propaganda leaflets into North Korea under the guise of “information dissemination.” So far, over 5,000 balloons have crossed the border on more than 20 occasions, carried by the northwesterly winds. Even now, many balloons may continue to drift toward South Korea, despite the halt in leaflet-sending activities by South Korean NGOs.

A Broader Strategy

Some interpret North Korea’s balloon provocations as part of a broader external strategy. This strategy targets not just South Korea but also the U.S. presidential election and North Korea policy. North Korea may believe that a Donald Trump victory would favorably shift future U.S. policies. In contrast, they might view a Kamala Harris administration as continuing the current Biden administration’s policies. North Korea likely sees Trump, who has had a personal relationship with Kim Jong-un, as a better option for influencing U.S. policy.

Capitalizing on U.S. Weakness

Currently, the Middle East is on the brink of war, and the prolonged conflict in Ukraine has raised questions about U.S. influence. President Biden’s approval ratings have also dropped. This decline in U.S. power signals an opportunity for Trump’s campaign, making a victory seem more attainable. Trump has pledged to achieve peace in the Middle East and end the Ukraine war quickly. In this context, heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula could benefit Trump.

Escalating Tensions

North Korea is likely aware of Trump’s election strategy. They may have escalated tensions to improve Trump’s chances of winning. Rather than costly missile tests, North Korea has opted for low-cost waste balloon launches. This approach allows them to stir internal conflicts in the South and support Trump at the same time. Trump has previously expressed interest in easing sanctions on North Korea and negotiating peace for the Korean Peninsula. His views on reducing U.S. troop presence in South Korea align with North Korea’s interests.

Looking Ahead

Expect North Korea’s waste balloon launches to continue until the U.S. presidential election concludes, with possible fluctuations in scale and content. The South Korean government must adopt a clear and assertive response strategy. It’s essential to address public security concerns. Strengthening international cooperation and maintaining a consistent message toward North Korea is vital. This approach will help ensure a stable response that does not yield to North Korean provocations.

Conclusion

Ultimately, North Korea’s waste balloon provocations are strategic moves to maintain Kim Jong-un’s dictatorship and influence the U.S. presidential election. This tactic aims to strengthen North Korea’s bargaining power in future U.S.-North Korea relations.